A Donald Trump presidency is the sixth biggest threat facing the world, tied with the prospect of terrorism destabilizing the global economy, according to an assessment by British research group EIU.
Its latest ranking of global risks has a sharp economic slowdown in China at the top. That is followed by Russia’s actions in Syria and Ukraine bringing a new cold war, a corporate debt crisis in emerging markets and the fracture of the European Union.
EIU says it does not expect Trump to win the November election, but that there is a moderate probability he will and a high impact if he does.
The group cites his hostility toward free trade, advocacy of the killing of families of terrorists, support for ground troops in Syria and alienation of both China and Mexico that could result in trade wars and fueling terrorist groups.
Trump has promised to drive hard deals in international negotiations, particularly with China. One of his most repeated campaign pledges is to build along the southern U.S. border with Mexico to keep out illegal immigrants, a project he says Mexico will fund itself.
FILE – A group of Central American immigrants sit between vegetation for fear of organized crime bands in Huehuetoca, near Mexico City, June 1, 2015. An increasing number of Central Americans are sneaking across Mexico’s border en route to the United States.
EIU’s says the probability of a sharp economic slowdown in China is high and would come with a “very high impact.” Too much of a slowdown, the group says, and already slumping prices for commodities like oil and metals will drop further, while markets in the United States and European Union will have a tougher time expanding sales with Chinese customers.
China also features just behind Trump and terrorism on the list. It’s disputed activities in the South China Sea pose a risk of armed clashes, EIU says, and while the prospects of that happening are low, any military buildup bring the chance of even an accidental incident escalating into a high impact event.
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